Weekly Nifty Update – 7 July 2019 .. Budget over, What next ?

 

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharman presented her maiden budget on Friday, 5 July 2019. The economic survey 2018-19 revealed that to become a $5 trillion economy by 2025, India needs to sustain a GDP growth rate of 8%. Chief Economic Advisor K V Subramanian expects FY20 GDP growth at 7%.

 

 

Nifty Long Term

 

Last seven weeks has been broadly sideways. Election results day to Budget day, NIfty not able to make any net progress on the upside. As I have articulated ( here & here ) it will be difficult going ahead and the possibility of correction is much higher.

  • The weekly candle is a “Shooting Star”. A reversal pattern found at the top of an uptrend.  
  • Even though this week Nifty closed higher in the last three weeks, the RSI is still under negative crossover.
  • PPO negative crossover is slowly accelerating. Negative for prices.

 

 

Nifty Weekly

 

Nifty Intermediate Term

 

Markets have taken the Budget day negatively and responded with a 1%+ correction on Friday.

  • The Nifty Friday daily candle has formed a “Bearish Engulfing” pattern. Price has engulfed the last four days advance in a single day. Bearish at the top. 
  • RSI is reversing below the 50 mark and STO negative crossover from the overbought zone.
  • PPO negative crossover just above the zero line. 
  • The nifty retest of 11650 possible next week.

 

Nifty Daily

 

Nifty Short Term

 

Budget day selloff violated the uptrend channel and also closed below the 11840 support/resistance zone.

  • Nifty correction to 11650 +/- zone likely next week.
  • Again a range play between 11650 to 11850 possible but given the lack of any fresh trigger for the market to take cue after the Budget, a breakdown has a high probability. 

 

Nifty Hourly

 

 

AD line

 

Nifty and AD line breaking down simultaneously is a negative omen for the whole market. As I have repeatedly pointed out in the last one month, Nifty is being held up by a handful of large-cap stocks while everything else is falling apart. 

 

Source – Traders Cockpit

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Nifty Update – 7 July 2019 .. Budget over, What next ?
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